Partisan Choices: The PN's Fortunes in Local Elections, 1993 - 2007
It is not possible to trace, in any systematic fashion, the shifts in voter preferences
for each party and group from one round of local elections to the next round
because of the discontinuities in their participation in elections. Thus, the MLP
did not field candidates under its own banner until the third round; the AD did
not participate in the third round; and the various local groups rarely contested
in two successive elections.
Only the PN had its candidates participating in each locality and in each of the
five electoral rounds. Thus it is possible to show how the PN fared comparatively
from one round to the next, and the Tables below chart the changes in the PN's
fortunes.
Looking at the percentage of first-count votes gathered by PN candidates, as
shown in Table 1, there was a pronounced increase after the first round but
this was followed by three successive rounds of decline. The fifth round shows
a drop of five percentage points and the lowest percentage in all rounds.
The decline in the fifth round would have been even steeper had there not been
the exclusion of two MLP strongholds, Marsa and Zejtun, in 2005.  For details on
this, click here ---> www.maltadata.com/withdraw.htm
Table 1: PN's Percentage of First-Count Votes, All Localities
	First Round (1993 - 1994)					44.42
	Second Round (1996 - 1998)					49.00
	Third Round (1999 - 2001)					48.73
	Fourth Round (2002 - 2004)					47.08
	Fifth Round (2005 - 2007)					42.10
These changes in the overall first-round vote percentages are reflected in
the number of localities in which the PN obtained obtained a majority of the
first-count votes. Table 2 shows the initial growth and then the steep decline
in the number of localities with PN majorities.
Table 2: Localities With PN Majorities on the First Count
	First Round (1993 - 1994)					28
	Second Round (1996 - 1998)					26
	Third Round (1999 - 2001)					31
	Fourth Round (2002 - 2004)					34
	Fifth Round (2005 - 2007)					25
Table 3 provides a more detailed picture of changes from one round to the next,
giving the first-count vote percentage in each locality and each round and indicating
the gain or loss in the percentages from one round to the next. (The highlighted
percentages are those which show a PN majority.)
Table 3: Changes in the PN's First-Count Vote Shares, by Locality
	Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4		Round 5
		%	%	Change	%	Change	%	Change	%	Change
Attard		59.02	73.55	14.53	71.77	-1.78	63.27	-8.50	61.36	-1.91
Balzan		73.32	71.16	-2.15	79.19	8.02	76.96	-2.23	72.67	-4.30
Birgu (Vittoriosa)		24.85	26.82	1.97	24.72	-2.10	24.31	-0.40	21.87	-2.44
Birkirkara		55.06	62.81	7.75	59.73	-3.08	55.58	-4.15	48.56	-7.02
Birzebbugia		29.51	34.09	4.58	33.76	-0.33	27.24	-6.52	26.19	-1.05
Bormla		17.41	24.62	7.21	22.12	-2.50	24.50	2.38	20.53	-3.97
Dingli		31.22	33.01	1.79	40.75	7.74	29.97	-10.78	35.10	5.13
Fgura		28.13	39.41	11.28	35.72	-3.70	37.58	1.86	31.58	-6.00
Floriana		39.29	41.60	2.31	35.08	-6.52	32.23	-2.85	31.87	-0.36
Fontana		72.69	67.39	-5.30					62.11
Ghajnsielem		67.09	67.16	0.07	78.57	11.41	72.08	-6.50	57.84	-14.23
Gharb		53.91	48.96	-4.95	57.36	8.41	65.27	7.91	70.49	5.22
Gharghur		53.13	60.70	7.58	60.10	-0.60	59.28	-0.83	58.29	-0.99
Ghasri		55.42	69.00	13.57			57.73		56.52	-1.21
Ghaxaq		26.25	24.27	-1.98	26.98	2.71	28.92	1.94	29.40	0.49
Gudja		30.33	35.57	5.25	27.94	-7.63	32.83	4.89	28.69	-4.13
Gzira		40.06	49.12	9.06	38.87	-10.24	51.03	12.16	45.92	-5.11
Hamrun		48.51	59.99	11.48	45.90	-14.09	42.29	-3.61	42.13	-0.16
Iklin		42.70	54.28	11.58	57.05	2.78	59.41	2.35	52.06	-7.35
Isla (Senglea)		24.25	18.54	-5.71	32.16	13.62	27.20	-4.96	20.95	-6.25
Kalkara		25.30	37.31	12.01	31.99	-5.32	31.25	-0.74	31.74	0.49
Kercem		50.76			64.89		59.56	-5.33	58.16	-1.40
Kirkop					28.87		35.26	6.40	31.27	-3.99
Lija		44.57	65.53	20.96	65.52	-0.01	51.97	-13.55	57.14	5.18
Luqa		41.80	42.14	0.34	32.73	-9.41	34.45	1.71	36.64	2.19
Marsa		34.65	32.35	-2.30	39.60	7.25	31.53	-8.07
Marsaskala		24.45	40.04	15.59	42.57	2.53	37.15	-5.42	22.42	-14.73
Marsaxlokk		18.33	38.98	20.65	31.16	-7.82	26.22	-4.94	22.30	-3.92
Mdina		73.03	81.33	8.30	76.64	-4.69	77.51	0.88	72.25	-5.26
Mellieha		58.95	42.22	-16.74	49.84	7.63	46.45	-3.40	41.58	-4.87
Mgarr		44.05	56.59	12.54	71.50	14.91	72.38	0.88	68.35	-4.03
Mosta		55.29	62.47	7.18	53.03	-9.44	51.33	-1.70	46.12	-5.21
Mqabba		50.73	45.53	-5.20	53.30	7.78	52.99	-0.32	50.66	-2.33
Msida		47.87	56.92	9.05	56.95	0.03	53.93	-3.02	46.70	-7.23
Mtarfa					38.60		45.86	7.26	37.15	-8.71
Munxar		54.26			59.28		59.53	0.25	46.32	-13.21
Nadur		64.49	45.16	-19.33	51.30	6.15	57.17	5.87	62.47	5.30
Naxxar		24.15	35.37	11.22	53.41	18.04	61.30	7.89	58.29	-3.00
Paola		36.42	42.79	6.37	38.06	-4.73	33.54	-4.52	31.25	-2.29
Pembroke		17.34	20.06	2.72	32.03	11.97	36.13	4.10	28.90	-7.22
Pieta		41.43			54.57		56.28	1.71	48.58	-7.70
Qala		37.46			67.60		66.03	-1.56	60.98	-5.05
Qormi		43.20	53.64	10.44	45.30	-8.35	39.60	-5.69	36.65	-2.95
Qrendi		62.06	51.76	-10.30	46.70	-5.06	49.13	2.43	38.39	-10.74
Rabat (Gozo)		55.37	55.07	-0.31	59.25	4.18	65.26	6.01	58.31	-6.95
Rabat (Malta)		54.96	52.04	-2.93	50.33	-1.71	48.14	-2.19	47.96	-0.18
Safi		41.70					52.29		50.81	-1.48
San Giljan		54.46	59.99	5.53	66.86	6.87	55.52	-11.34	54.15	-1.37
San Gwann		50.43	55.61	5.19	51.12	-4.49	51.55	0.43	47.47	-4.08
San Lawrenz		70.32			80.63		72.59	-8.03	67.31	-5.28
San Pawl il-Bahar		51.76	39.36	-12.39	60.22	20.86	53.04	-7.19	48.79	-4.24
Sannat		38.41	34.70	-3.71	36.35	1.66	35.96	-0.39	25.94	-10.02
Santa Lucija		37.08	38.97	1.89	32.60	-6.37	28.99	-3.61	30.69	1.70
Santa Venera		52.31	52.76	0.46	56.64	3.87	53.41	-3.23	47.23	-6.18
Siggiewi		48.88	47.65	-1.22	54.00	6.35	55.03	1.03	57.76	2.73
Sliema		66.29	80.42	14.13	74.81	-5.61	70.24	-4.57	61.64	-8.60
Swieqi		67.57	88.42	20.86	81.27	-7.16	74.41	-6.86	72.66	-1.75
Tarxien		34.10	44.97	10.87	41.65	-3.31	40.86	-0.79	31.38	-9.48
Ta'Xbiex		53.39	47.83	-5.56	45.74	-2.10	37.07	-8.66	36.19	-0.88
Valletta		53.51	55.00	1.49	53.13	-1.87	55.81	2.68	54.40	-1.41
Xaghra		48.94	62.11	13.17	47.27	-14.84	54.12	6.85	47.55	-6.57
Xewkija		40.50	37.88	-2.61	47.22	9.33	39.36	-7.85	33.01	-6.35
Xghajra		28.92	30.80	1.87	29.77	-1.02	25.39	-4.38	17.08	-8.31
Zabbar		33.76	34.45	0.70	33.42	-1.03	33.69	0.27	27.93	-5.76
Zebbug (Gozo)		61.57	60.37	-1.20	69.09	8.72	70.70	1.62	62.83	-7.87
Zebbug (Malta)		30.70	31.27	0.58	49.24	17.97	46.12	-3.12	42.21	-3.90
Zejtun		20.86	28.10	7.25	30.28	2.17	25.78	-4.50
Zurrieq		27.97	24.59	-3.38	33.34	8.75	29.75	-3.59	23.67	-6.09
ALL		44.42	49.00	4.58	48.73	-0.27	47.08	-1.65	42.10	-4.98